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Site contents

1. Risk and Uncertainty (Description and Definition)

2. Decision making under uncertainty

3. Methodologies for uncertainty analysis

4. Decision tree for choosing an uncertainty analysis method

5. Case Studies of the application of uncertainty analysis methods

6. Code of Practice for uncertainty analysis

7. Software issues relating to uncertainty handling

About this site

In recent years great advances have been made in the development of quantitative analysis methods to support flood risk management, in particular tools for the explicit treatment of uncertainty. The purpose of this web site is to make these tools more accessible to the flood risk management community. It does so by collecting basic information about them in one place, and by enhancing this basic information with guidance and case studies.

Most of the methods catalogued here are classified uncertainty analysis methods. The closely related issue of sensitivity analysis is also covered. An obvious question regarding this focus on uncertainty is what a decision maker is to do about it. Decision balls analysis tools provide one answer to this question; the entry on the info-gap theory describes a powerful method supporting decision making under extreme uncertainty.

There are many approaches to uncertainty analysis available. There is thus no universally "best" method; each embeds a particular set of assumptions and choices, and a choice must be made on the basis of an understanding of these. A decision tree is provided here to guide the user of the site to a method or class of methods suited to their particular situation.

For each method a brief description is provided, along with links to software implementing the method and references to more detailed documentation. There are also several case studies summarised, again with pointers to further information.

Opinion may be divided on the question of which are the most appropriate methods in a particular circumstance. Any guidance such as that provided here will necessarily reflect the views of the authors. These pages take the form of a wiki, however, and are thus freely editable. We hope that collaborative development will allow these issues to be made explicit in these pages even if they cannot be resolved.

Contributions of all kinds are encouraged, from the correction of typographical errors to the addition of new entries for methods and case studies. If the idea of directly editing a page is offputting, or you wish to pose a question rather than make a change, a comment facility is available on every page.

The initial development of this web site has been funded by the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium under Research Priority Area 9.

Any contributions to this web site will explicitly acknowledge the author (unless given anonymous) - please quote accordingly. Credits

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